Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:55:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
91 0x9173…8797 other 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 610d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$111 (+1%) realized +$111 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate25%19W / 56L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$10
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 69% −$14
other 14% +$5
politics 10% −$4
sports 3% +$118
crypto 3% +$3
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +11.6% +1.0% 17% 17% -3.5%
≤30d 18 -1.8% -11.1% 11% 6% -9.2%
≤90d 57 +0.6% -9.0% 21% 16% -8.9%
all 75 +5.7% -4.3% 25% 16% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 16% -9.0%
10% -13.5% 16% -17.7%
15% -21.9% 15% -25.7%
20% -29.5% 15% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$2 · ×5.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

610d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized+$111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses19 / 56
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 77
History coverage610d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $119 $119 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 23 $31 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $26 $0 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 21 $15 +$11 +70%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $21 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $36 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $40 $0 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $38 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $33 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $30 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 02 $116 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $24 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $28 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $31 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $24 $0 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 12 $6 +$9 +158%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $161 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $166 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $167 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 6? May 07 $75 +$1 +2%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $175 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $164 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 26 $176 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $176 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $160 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Apr 24 $162 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $174 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $180 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $179 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $175 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $168 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $178 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $167 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $166 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $167 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $197 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 11 $21 +$1 +6%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $9 +$7 +79%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $12 +$12 +104%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $12 +$15 +124%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Blues vs. Ducks Apr 06 $13 −$13 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Apr 06 $10 +$3 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 2h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 3h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 26h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 27h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 58¢ $15 2d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 3d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 3d
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? BUY No 100¢ $48 4d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 4d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 7d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $119 9d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 12d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 12d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 12d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 12d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 14d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 14d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 47¢ $8 14d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 17d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 17d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 19d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 19d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 19d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 19d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $30 21d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $30 21d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $24 22d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.06 · official $167.06 (match) · 280 history records