Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:11:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
91 0x9172…7f49 sports 518 markets active 2h ago coverage 388d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$18 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate67%339W / 169L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$461now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$90
14 days+$42
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$119
sports 45% +$108
crypto 1% +$15
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +11.8% +1.2% 69% 69% +7.9%
≤30d 139 -5.3% -14.3% 61% 58% -8.7%
≤90d 372 -3.2% -12.5% 66% 62% -9.1%
all 508 -3.7% -12.9% 67% 62% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 62% -9.3%
10% -21.2% 47% -18.0%
15% -28.8% 31% -25.9%
20% -35.8% 18% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$13 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

388d coverage
Net worth$461
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses339 / 169
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions5
Markets (closed)508 / 518
History coverage388d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 508 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $149 $150 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $100 $140 +$40 (+40%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 85¢ 86¢ $79 $79 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $125 $70 −$55 (-44%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 142 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $50 +$30 +61%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $30 +$11 +36%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 England? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 −$3 -16%
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $5 +$5 +101%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $5 +$2 +32%
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: KRX vs FLY Jun 27 $3 −$3 -99%
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS Jun 27 $8 +$1 +17%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $8 +$5 +62%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $13 +$9 +73%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $10 +$1 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $22 +$13 +59%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25 Jun 26 $15 +$5 +36%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $13 −$13 -99%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 25 $1 +$1 +60%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $6 +$5 +74%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$4 +27%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$15 +152%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +120%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $35 +$22 +61%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $50 +$15 +29%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$6 -61%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 +$2 +12%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $45 +$27 +58%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $15 +$4 +23%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 +$5 +48%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $15 +$20 +132%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$5 +24%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $50 +$12 +24%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $40 +$14 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $159 +$116 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$19 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -99%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 15 $20 +$5 +23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $70 −$70 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $15 +$4 +24%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 85¢ $79 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 94¢ $39 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 77¢ $150 9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 10h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $29 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 24h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 100¢ $41 24h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 88¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 England? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 73¢ $17 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 26h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Rafael Fiziev 100¢ $10 28h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $5 31h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 33h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 67¢ $20 34h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL DN SOOPers 100¢ $7 35h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 BUY DK 83¢ $7 35h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY DN SOOPers 75¢ $5 36h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: KRX vs FLY BUY KRX 62¢ $3 37h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS SELL DK 100¢ $9 37h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS BUY DK 85¢ $8 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $8 2d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) SELL Senegal 100¢ $11 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 2d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 88¢ $10 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 57¢ $13 2d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Sene BUY 28¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $460.86 · official $460.86 (match) · 974 history records