Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:19:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9171…9e5f sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8,888 (-42%) realized −$6,637 · open −$2,251
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,500per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$258est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$414now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,618
7 days−$2,285
14 days−$2,285
30 days−$6,932
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$2,941
other 33% −$6,903
crypto 0% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +44.1% +30.4% 43% 43% -25.9%
≤30d 9 +12.1% +1.4% 33% 33% -45.8%
≤90d 12 -15.9% -23.9% 25% 25% -46.1%
all 12 -15.9% -23.9% 25% 25% -46.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 25% -46.1%
10% -31.2% 25% -51.3%
15% -37.9% 25% -56.0%
20% -44.0% 25% -60.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,425 vs −$1,658 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$414
Realized−$6,637
Unrealized−$2,251
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$258
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage62d
Avg bet$1,500
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants LG Twins 56¢ 16¢ $1,406 $411 −$995 (-71%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 26¢ $1,258 $2 −$1,256 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $673 −$658 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $1,018 +$1,459 +143%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $1,023 +$3,322 +325%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $1,036 +$2,496 +241%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $6,992 −$6,903 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $1,739 −$1,699 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 06 $2,985 −$2,949 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 09 $50 −$49 -97%
Goyang vs. LG Sakers Apr 27 $672 −$612 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants BUY LG Twins 57¢ $144 1h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants BUY LG Twins 56¢ $46 1h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants BUY LG Twins 56¢ $64 1h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants BUY LG Twins 57¢ $577 1h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants BUY LG Twins 55¢ $3 1h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants BUY LG Twins 55¢ $3 1h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants BUY LG Twins 56¢ $167 1h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants BUY LG Twins 56¢ $106 1h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants BUY LG Twins 56¢ $91 1h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants BUY LG Twins 56¢ $208 1h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants BUY LG Twins 55¢ $15 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 26¢ $1,063 2h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 24¢ $223 2h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 25¢ $1,022 3h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 27¢ $162 3h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 24¢ $511 4h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $2,477 4h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 40¢ $916 4h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 41¢ $102 4h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $499 5h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $679 5h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $420 5h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $696 5h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $779 5h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $714 5h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $557 5h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 23¢ $921 5h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 23¢ $102 5h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 28¢ $511 5h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 27¢ $511 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $413.72 · official $413.72 (match) · 51 history records