trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 62¢ | 64¢ | $3 | $3 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 59¢ | 58¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 58¢ | 57¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 53¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $1 | $0 | -5% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $1 | +$1 | +97% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $1 | +$2 | +154% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 11 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? | Dec 02 | $1 | $0 | -36% |
| Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? | Dec 02 | $1 | $0 | +15% |
| Will Zama launch a token in 2025? | Dec 02 | $1 | $0 | +41% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +36.6% | +23.6% | 50% | 50% | +24.0% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +36.6% | +23.6% | 50% | 50% | +24.0% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +36.6% | +23.6% | 50% | 50% | +24.0% |
| all | 7 | +23.7% | +11.9% | 57% | 57% | +12.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +11.9% | 57% | +12.2% |
| 10% | +1.2% | 43% | +1.5% |
| 15% | -8.6% | 43% | -8.3% |
| 20% | -17.6% | 29% | -17.3% |