Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:54:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9160…1705 crypto 765 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 83d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,986 (-12%) realized −$3,970 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate74%566W / 198L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day28.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 84d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$576
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -1.6% -11.0% 66% 66% -13.4%
≤30d 333 +1.9% -7.8% 64% 62% -12.3%
≤90d 764 +0.2% -9.4% 74% 58% -11.1%
all 764 +0.2% -9.4% 74% 58% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 58% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 30% -19.6%
15% -26.0% 20% -27.4%
20% -33.2% 14% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$39 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$3,970
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses566 / 198
Open positions1
Markets (closed)764 / 765
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$43
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 764 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7PM ET Down 63¢ 28¢ $30 $13 −$16 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET Jun 18 $29 +$17 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET Jun 18 $29 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$19 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET Jun 18 $29 +$17 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $36 +$21 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$17 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$16 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$14 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $35 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$12 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $33 +$17 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$7 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $38 +$22 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $37 +$16 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $37 +$9 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $37 +$14 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$9 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$21 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$31 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$24 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $33 +$22 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $34 −$19 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $35 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $37 −$18 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$17 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $34 +$8 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $34 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$17 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$19 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET Jun 13 $33 −$19 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $34 +$10 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $34 +$9 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $30 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $29 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $43 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $29 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $29 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $35 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $37 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $13 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $19 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $24 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $32 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $15 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $35 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $24 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.61 · official $27.53 · 3500 history records