Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:11:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9160…3364 crypto 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (209 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$128 (+10%) realized +$97 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day209.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$212
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (209 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +17.5% +6.3% 41% 38% +4.2%
≤30d 29 +17.5% +6.3% 41% 38% +4.2%
≤90d 29 +17.5% +6.3% 41% 38% +4.2%
all 29 +17.5% +6.3% 41% 38% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover209.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.3% 38% +4.2%
10% ← realistic here -3.8% 38% -5.8%
15% -13.1% 38% -14.9%
20% -21.7% 38% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$41 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$97
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage1d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day209.0
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 18¢ 34¢ $36 $67 +$31 (+86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $70 +$130 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $86 −$82 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $17 −$14 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $70 +$116 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $58 −$57 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $48 +$26 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$47 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $27 +$68 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $35 +$65 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $42 +$118 +279%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $29 −$27 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $35 +$65 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $47 +$151 +324%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $34 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$70 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $18 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$15 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$19 +181%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $38 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $70 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $17 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $69 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $17 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $14 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $8 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $19 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $14 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $19 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $14 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $19 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $19 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $17 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $19 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $15 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $7 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $7 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 35m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.00 · official $99.00 · 215 history records