Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:17:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x915d…16fc crypto 142 markets active 3h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (306 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$223 (+2%) realized +$223 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate64%91W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day305.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (306 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 142 -11.4% -19.8% 64% 20% -10.5%
≤30d 142 -11.4% -19.8% 64% 20% -10.5%
≤90d 142 -11.4% -19.8% 64% 20% -10.5%
all 142 -11.4% -19.8% 64% 20% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover305.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 20% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 6% -19.1%
15% -34.5% 3% -26.9%
20% -40.9% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$23 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$223
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses91 / 51
Open positions0
Markets (closed)142 / 142
History coverage4d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day305.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 142 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 26 $41 −$37 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $98 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $41 −$31 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 26 $40 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 26 $153 +$40 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $120 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 26 $119 +$28 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 26 $99 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $116 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $115 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 26 $120 +$11 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $38 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $105 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $124 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $122 +$12 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $119 +$14 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $93 −$52 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $103 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 26 $82 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $80 +$34 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 26 $118 +$12 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $113 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 26 $120 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 26 $107 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $116 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 25 $118 +$11 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 25 $39 −$37 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 25 $110 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 25 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $122 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $83 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 25 $121 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 25 $41 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $62 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 25 $39 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 25 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $112 +$12 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 25 $124 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 25 $112 +$15 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $107 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 25 $107 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 25 $123 +$12 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 25 $40 −$38 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 25 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 25 $40 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $84 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $101 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $36 −$34 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1341 history records