Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:30:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
91 0x915d…1f00 crypto 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$70 (+1%) realized +$64 · open +$51
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate53%70W / 63L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$28
14 days+$28
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% +$135
sports 18% +$197
other 4% −$217
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +20.7% +9.2% 83% 83% -5.7%
≤30d 6 +20.7% +9.2% 83% 83% -5.7%
≤90d 22 +10.4% -0.1% 59% 55% -17.7%
all 133 +2.1% -7.6% 53% 39% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 39% -8.6%
10% -16.5% 31% -17.3%
15% -24.6% 22% -25.3%
20% -31.9% 16% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$21 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized+$64
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses70 / 63
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)133 / 135
History coverage165d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Under 68¢ 100¢ $110 $162 +$52 (+47%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 +$14 +27%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $220 −$216 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $161 +$113 +71%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $133 +$72 +54%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $90 +$43 +48%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Mar 24 $80 −$80 -100%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 24 $210 −$171 -82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rott Mar 23 $125 +$75 +60%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Mar 22 $24 +$7 +30%
Heat vs. Rockets Mar 22 $10 +$19 +185%
Lakers vs. Magic Mar 22 $34 +$29 +85%
Raptors vs. Nuggets Mar 21 $39 +$3 +7%
Hawks vs. Rockets Mar 21 $39 +$15 +39%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 19 $10 +$11 +113%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.10 and $2.20 on January 7? Mar 18 $110 −$49 -45%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.80 and $1.90 on January 21? Mar 18 $141 −$29 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 4? Mar 18 $112 −$51 -46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 2? Mar 18 $66 −$8 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 2? Mar 18 $5 −$4 -70%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 5? Mar 18 $10 −$6 -55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 10? Mar 18 $236 +$40 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 3? Feb 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 3? Feb 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on February 1? Feb 01 $10 +$4 +39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 31? Jan 31 $6 +$6 +100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 29? Jan 29 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 29? Jan 29 $5 +$4 +72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 29? Jan 29 $16 +$8 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 22? Jan 22 $20 +$5 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 21? Jan 21 $5 $0 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 21? Jan 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 21? Jan 21 $5 +$31 +614%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 21? Jan 21 $31 +$5 +15%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 21? Jan 21 $43 +$1 +2%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.80 and $1.90 on January 20? Jan 20 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 20? Jan 20 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 20? Jan 20 $29 +$32 +109%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 20? Jan 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 20? Jan 20 $85 −$85 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 19? Jan 19 $69 −$7 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 19? Jan 19 $93 +$3 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 19? Jan 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 19? Jan 18 $18 $0 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 18? Jan 18 $10 −$4 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 18? Jan 18 $77 −$32 -42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 18? Jan 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 18? Jan 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 17? Jan 17 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 17? Jan 17 $5 +$2 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $111 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 78¢ $50 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $4 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $17 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 23h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 96¢ $6 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 71¢ $10 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $5 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $35 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $35 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $50 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $20 28h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $205 28h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $133 36h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $41 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $40 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $8 2d
Warriors vs. Mavericks BUY Mavericks 51¢ $80 82d
Lakers vs. Pistons SELL Lakers 10¢ $39 82d
Lakers vs. Pistons BUY Lakers 54¢ $100 83d
Lakers vs. Pistons BUY Lakers 54¢ $110 83d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rott SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $200 83d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rott BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $80 83d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rott BUY Natus Vincere 62¢ $45 83d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $31 84d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $24 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.00 · official $167.00 (match) · 1211 history records