Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9159…2dd9 other 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 586d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$352 (+0%) realized +$356 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%11W / 18L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$907per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$324now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$1,188
politics 1% −$825
other 0% −$5
sports 0% −$9
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -9.0% -17.7% 0% 0% -17.0%
≤30d 8 -9.0% -17.7% 0% 0% -17.0%
≤90d 8 -9.0% -17.7% 0% 0% -17.0%
all 29 -15.3% -23.3% 38% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.3% 3% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -30.7% 0% -17.8%
15% -37.4% 0% -25.7%
20% -43.5% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$178 vs −$90 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

586d coverage
Net worth$324
Realized+$356
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses11 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions49
Markets (closed)29 / 78
History coverage586d
Avg bet$907
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 49 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 36¢ 36¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 90¢ $14 $17 +$2 (+18%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $16 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 42¢ 42¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? No 79¢ 78¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? No 45¢ 44¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 24¢ 24¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $13 $10 −$2 (-19%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? No 12¢ 12¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 39¢ 38¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? No 85¢ 84¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? No 26¢ 25¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 $0 -7%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 15 $8 −$1 -9%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh Jun 15 $6 −$1 -13%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $6 −$1 -12%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 15 $23 −$3 -11%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$1 -7%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 15 $22 −$1 -7%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 15 $27 −$2 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 10 $34 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 10 $1 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $74,000 on February 6? Feb 09 $34 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in December? Dec 18 $31 +$4 +12%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Dec 05 $30 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin above $90,000 on November 22? Nov 25 $20 −$10 -49%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? Nov 21 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Nov 21 $600 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in November? Nov 21 $26,445 +$288 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Nov 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November? Nov 20 $2,544 −$740 -29%
Will Trump say "Kamala" in his speech after the election is called? Nov 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in November? Nov 13 $205 +$15 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in November? Nov 13 $26,215 +$1,100 +4%
Will Solana reach $230 in November? Nov 12 $200 −$9 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in November? Nov 11 $8,654 +$431 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in November? Nov 11 $3,326 +$82 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3,250 in November? Nov 11 $500 +$26 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in November? Nov 10 $500 +$10 +2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 10 $823 −$823 -100%
No Ethereum all time high in 2024? Nov 06 $1 $0 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) SELL Conor McGregor 31¢ $2 41m
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, SELL Ion Cutelaba 27¢ $3 41m
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh SELL Melissa Mullins 18¢ $5 41m
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Kevin Borjas 18¢ $5 41m
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma SELL Hyder Amil 40¢ $15 41m
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, SELL Ion Cutelaba 28¢ $4 44m
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma SELL Hyder Amil 42¢ $6 44m
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Kyoji Horiguchi 40¢ $19 44m
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Los Angeles Sparks 34¢ $20 44m
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings SELL Dallas Wings 41¢ $25 44m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 12¢ $2 1h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Ion Cutelaba 29¢ $2 1h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Melissa Mullins 20¢ $1 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 19¢ $1 1h
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Hyder Amil 45¢ $4 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 36¢ $6 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 42¢ $5 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 41¢ $3 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 42¢ $4 1h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Los Angeles Sparks 35¢ $3 1h
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Conor McGregor 32¢ $2 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 41¢ $3 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 76¢ $7 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $324.50 · official $324.50 (match) · 362 history records