Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9159…f1a8 weather 299 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$79 (+1%) realized +$77 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate48%143W / 153L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$7
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$41
world 0% −$1
other 0% −$8
crypto 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
politics 0% −$5
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -6.7% -15.6% 49% 11% -9.6%
≤30d 124 -4.9% -14.0% 50% 9% -9.2%
≤90d 296 -2.9% -12.2% 48% 11% -9.3%
all 296 -2.9% -12.2% 48% 11% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 11% -9.3%
10% -20.6% 9% -18.0%
15% -28.2% 8% -25.9%
20% -35.3% 6% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$77
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses143 / 153
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)296 / 299
History coverage79d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 296 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $84 $84 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Yes 88¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 17? Jun 16 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $128 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $3 $0 -12%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$7 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -34%
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 15? Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $80 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$5 +230%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 13 $70 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -59%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 13 $3 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $110 −$2 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 13? Jun 12 $113 −$1 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -16%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C or below on June 14? Jun 12 $112 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $112 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 11 $15 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 13? Jun 11 $115 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 12? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 12? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or below on June 12? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 +$9 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 −$5 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $100 −$4 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $131 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$2 +167%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $101 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C or below on June 10? Jun 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $20 −$5 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 +$4 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $84 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 34¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $100 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $110 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $110 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $118 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $118 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? SELL No 98¢ $11 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $80 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.51 · official $101.50 (match) · 756 history records