Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:20:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9158…ad24 other 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,618 (-9%) realized −$3,508 · open −$110
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate66%44W / 23L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$537per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$597now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$1,389
sports 36% −$195
crypto 2% +$81
world 2% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -13.9% -22.1% 71% 61% -21.5%
≤30d 67 -3.2% -12.4% 66% 48% -13.5%
≤90d 67 -3.2% -12.4% 66% 48% -13.5%
all 67 -3.2% -12.4% 66% 48% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 48% -13.5%
10% -20.8% 22% -21.7%
15% -28.4% 10% -29.3%
20% -35.4% 6% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$693) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$175 vs −$396 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$597
Realized−$3,508
Unrealized−$110
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses44 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 76
History coverage22d
Avg bet$537
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $509 $514 +$5 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 39¢ 16¢ $197 $82 −$115 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Greece win on 2026-06-04? Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $140 +$10 +7%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $467 +$223 +48%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $168 +$32 +19%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $182 +$18 +10%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $253 −$168 -66%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $279 +$21 +8%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $50 +$29 +60%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $693 +$74 +11%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $251 +$39 +16%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $295 +$135 +46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $188 +$22 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $79 +$21 +27%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $102 +$18 +17%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $61 −$60 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $123 +$56 +46%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $28 +$6 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,372 −$2,366 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,166 +$234 +11%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,662 +$536 +32%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,305 +$195 +15%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,207 +$262 +22%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,311 −$1,304 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,015 +$485 +24%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,760 +$286 +16%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $301 −$300 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,005 −$2,000 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $973 +$142 +15%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $502 +$79 +16%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $298 +$45 +15%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $201 +$40 +20%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 15 $406 +$44 +11%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $201 −$200 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $1,268 +$104 +8%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,205 +$299 +25%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $78 +$12 +15%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $399 +$91 +23%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $501 +$20 +4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $600 +$3,030 +505%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $201 −$200 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $517 −$646 -125%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $903 −$834 -92%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $201 −$150 -74%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 +$15 +29%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $901 +$22 +2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $201 +$52 +26%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $932 +$79 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $212 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 57¢ $56 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $179 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $271 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 93¢ $140 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $302 11h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 84¢ $168 17h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 84¢ $84 23h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 BUY Under 91¢ $182 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $61 23h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $253 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $406 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Under 93¢ $1 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Under 93¢ $278 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $50 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 89¢ $150 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 82¢ $101 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $198 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $565 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 75¢ $128 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $45 47h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $143 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $79 47h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $295 2d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 85¢ $102 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $61 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $123 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $28 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $2,372 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $596.73 · official $596.80 (match) · 265 history records