Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:39:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

91 0x9157…626b finance 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$3,088 (+4%) realized −$408 · open +$3,496

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +61% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip

Net edge+40%after slip

Net WR13%break-even

Win rate70%16W / 7L

Whale WR83%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,532per market

Trades / day1.9pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit85%portable

Net worth$43,872now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$952

7 days+$1,009

14 days−$685

30 days−$533

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +13%

net ROI/market (all)+45.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+2.8%	-7.0%	100%	0%	-4.6%
≤30d	16	+119.1%	+98.2%	88%	19%	-11.0%
≤90d	23	+61.1%	+45.8%	70%	13%	-11.1%
all	23	+61.1%	+45.8%	70%	13%	-11.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+45.8%	13%	-11.1%
10%	+31.8%	9%	-19.6%
15%	+19.1%	9%	-27.4%
20%	+7.4%	4%	-34.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 59% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +61% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 83% (≥$1,177) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -41% → late +155% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$100 vs −$311 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.73 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage

Net worth$43,872

Realized−$408

Unrealized+$3,496

Win rate (resolved)70%

Wins / losses16 / 7

Whale WR (big bets)83%

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions29

Markets (closed)23 / 52

History coverage99d

Avg bet$1,532

Trades / day1.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 29 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	82¢	92¢	$23,958	$26,733	+$2,775 (+12%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	81¢	99¢	$3,520	$4,328	+$808 (+23%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	69¢	62¢	$4,113	$3,668	−$445 (-11%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	No	80¢	99¢	$1,176	$1,451	+$275 (+23%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in June?	No	98¢	97¢	$1,330	$1,314	−$17 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	68¢	72¢	$1,020	$1,072	+$52 (+5%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?	No	71¢	68¢	$719	$685	−$33 (-5%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June?	No	98¢	98¢	$610	$609	−$1 (-0%)
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $276 Week of June 15 2026?	No	98¢	99¢	$517	$521	+$5 (+1%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $355 Week of June 15 2026?	No	89¢	76¢	$604	$517	−$87 (-14%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $335 Week of June 15 2026?	No	97¢	98¢	$483	$492	+$10 (+2%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $345 Week of June 15 2026?	No	92¢	94¢	$458	$472	+$15 (+3%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?	No	74¢	99¢	$267	$355	+$88 (+33%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $150 Week of June 15 2026?	No	92¢	92¢	$326	$323	−$3 (-1%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $145 Week of June 15 2026?	No	96¢	95¢	$309	$306	−$3 (-1%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $147.50 Week of June 15 2026?	No	93¢	92¢	$229	$225	−$4 (-2%)
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $147 Week of June 15 2026?	No	95¢	95¢	$187	$186	−$1 (-0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 15 2026?	No	86¢	82¢	$133	$127	−$5 (-4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	84¢	100¢	$84	$100	+$15 (+18%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	40¢	48¢	$80	$97	+$17 (+21%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	75¢	82¢	$75	$82	+$8 (+10%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 by December 31, 2026?	No	25¢	41¢	$34	$56	+$22 (+65%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June?	No	99¢	100¢	$46	$46	+$0 (+1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?	No	39¢	46¢	$37	$43	+$6 (+17%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	No	87¢	94¢	$32	$35	+$2 (+7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June?	Jun 15	$913	+$15	+2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	Jun 15	$14,706	+$937	+6%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of June 8 2026?	Jun 12	$679	+$14	+2%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $435 Week of June 8 2026?	Jun 12	$980	+$20	+2%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $442.50 Week of June 8 2026?	Jun 12	$1,177	+$23	+2%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 1 2026?	Jun 05	$3,397	+$103	+3%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 1 2026?	Jun 05	$752	+$10	+1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of June 1 2026?	Jun 05	$3,374	+$111	+3%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 1 2026?	Jun 05	$403	+$20	+5%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of June 1 2026?	Jun 05	$1,047	−$719	-69%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	Jun 04	$1,484	+$190	+13%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Jun 04	$1,804	−$1,410	-78%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?	Jun 04	$107	+$1	+1%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 30	$215	+$84	+39%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May?	May 30	$748	+$52	+7%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $114 in May?	May 30	$784	+$16	+2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	May 18	$40	−$40	-100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of April 13 2026?	Apr 19	$52	$0	+0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of April 13 2026?	Apr 19	$10	$0	+0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Apr 18	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Apr 18	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Apr 18	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Apr 18	$2	−$2	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $147 Week of June 15	BUY No	95¢	$188	16m
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $335 Week of June 15 2026?	BUY No	97¢	$483	19m
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $345 Week of June 15 2026?	BUY No	92¢	$459	20m
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?	BUY No	74¢	$150	1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?	BUY No	70¢	$11	1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?	BUY No	70¢	$566	1h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $145 Week of June 15 2026?	BUY No	96¢	$309	2h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $147.50 Week of June 15 20	BUY No	93¢	$229	2h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $150 Week of June 15 2026?	BUY No	92¢	$327	2h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 15 2026?	SELL No	88¢	$235	9h
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $276 Week of June 15 2026?	BUY No	98¢	$517	23h
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $355 Week of June 15 2026?	BUY No	89¢	$607	24h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 15 2026?	SELL No	89¢	$51	24h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 15 2026?	SELL No	88¢	$20	24h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 15 2026?	SELL No	88¢	$38	24h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 15 2026?	SELL No	88¢	$38	24h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 15 2026?	SELL No	88¢	$38	24h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 15 2026?	BUY No	86¢	$547	25h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June?	SELL No	98¢	$17	45h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June?	SELL No	89¢	$121	47h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June?	SELL No	89¢	$89	47h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June?	SELL No	90¢	$90	47h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June?	SELL No	90¢	$90	47h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June?	SELL No	93¢	$790	47h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June?	SELL No	90¢	$90	47h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June?	SELL No	92¢	$138	47h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June?	SELL No	89¢	$104	47h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June?	SELL No	90¢	$90	47h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June?	SELL No	89¢	$106	47h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June?	SELL No	91¢	$1,019	47h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43,872.34 · official $43,902.83 (match) · 278 history records