Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:14:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9156…3d69 crypto 783 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (91 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,246 (-3%) realized −$1,211 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%409W / 457L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day90.7pace
Fees−$197est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$353now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% +$65
sports 22% −$2,042
other 3% −$356
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (91 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 -86.8% -88.0% 5% 5% -53.8%
≤30d 800 -12.1% -20.4% 45% 40% -26.6%
≤90d 866 -11.1% -19.5% 47% 42% -24.6%
all 866 -11.1% -19.5% 47% 42% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover90.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.5% 42% -24.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.2% 38% -31.9%
15% -34.3% 31% -38.4%
20% -40.7% 30% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$35 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$353
Realized−$1,211
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses409 / 457
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$197
Open positions1
Markets (closed)866 / 783
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$46
Trades / day90.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 866 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Over 15¢ 14¢ $388 $353 −$35 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 310 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $199 −$199 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $389 −$389 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $398 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $107 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 5h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 14¢ $409 8h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $246 9h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $171 14h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 14h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 14h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $257 14h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 31¢ $142 14h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 23¢ $133 14h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 14h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 23¢ $15 14h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 23¢ $46 14h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 23¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 23¢ $20 14h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 23¢ $53 14h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 14h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 14h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 14h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 14h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 14h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 24¢ $15 14h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $352.94 · official $352.94 (match) · 3500 history records