Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:01:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9154…c18c other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$4 (-3%) realized +$51 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip
Net edge+40%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$82
14 days+$68
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$23
sports 7% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+39.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +132.0% +109.9% 50% 50% +106.8%
≤30d 6 +54.6% +39.9% 33% 33% +68.7%
≤90d 6 +54.6% +39.9% 33% 33% +68.7%
all 6 +54.6% +39.9% 33% 33% +68.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +39.9% 33% +68.7%
10% +26.5% 33% +52.5%
15% +14.3% 33% +37.8%
20% +3.1% 33% +24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +86% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt +86% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$12 · ×4.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.46 per $1 lost it wins $2.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$51
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage10d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Paraguay to win the second half? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-47%)
Germany leading at halftime? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 29 $15 +$82 +533%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 28 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $16 +$32 +195%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paraguay to win the second half? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 6m
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 3h
Japan leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 3h
Japan leading at halftime? SELL Yes 72¢ $97 4h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 4h
South Africa leading at halftime? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 25h
South Africa leading at halftime? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 75¢ $48 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 9d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.38 · official $5.38 (match) · 13 history records