Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:56:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9154…89b6 other 146 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%20W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$13
14 days−$29
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$38
sports 22% −$3
politics 21% −$11
crypto 13% −$8
culture 6% −$4
economics 5% −$2
tech 2% −$1
world 2% −$3
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -1.1% -10.5% 4% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 75 -0.9% -10.3% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 126 -0.6% -10.1% 14% 0% -9.9%
all 145 -0.6% -10.0% 14% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses20 / 125
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)145 / 146
History coverage104d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 94¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 22 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 21 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $38 $0 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 21 $57 $0 +0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $40 −$1 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $129 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $99 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $207 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $15 −$1 -4%
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion Jun 19 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $36 −$2 -6%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $101 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $53 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $46 $0 -1%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $41 −$1 -3%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $45 −$1 -1%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $183 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 16 $15 $0 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $159 $0 -0%
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 14 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 14 $55 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 14 $43 −$1 -2%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $54 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 13 $56 −$1 -1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $222 −$1 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $326 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 12 $52 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $111 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 11 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 11 $59 −$3 -5%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 11 $59 −$1 -2%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $224 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $370 −$2 -1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $248 +$1 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $146 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $58 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $45 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $219 −$1 -0%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $37 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $19 48m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 96¢ $54 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 97¢ $54 5h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $45 6h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $46 10h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $38 10h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $38 16h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $57 17h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $57 25h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $0 25h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $39 25h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $40 32h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $64 32h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $64 40h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $54 41h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $54 45h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $49 45h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $45 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $45 2d
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $14 2d
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $15 2d
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion SELL No 96¢ $49 2d
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion BUY No 97¢ $39 3d
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion BUY No 97¢ $10 3d
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $33 3d
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $36 3d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $51 3d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $52 3d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.88 · official $18.88 (match) · 496 history records