Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:35:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
91 0x9154…8f2d sports 1155 markets active 1h ago coverage 214d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 213d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$950 (-4%) realized −$883 · open −$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%430W / 720L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$105est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 214d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$669
other 11% +$508
crypto 4% −$1
world 1% +$47
finance 0% −$49
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +5.8% -4.3% 36% 36% -3.7%
≤30d 164 +2.4% -7.3% 38% 38% -3.2%
≤90d 358 -20.1% -27.7% 29% 28% -20.0%
all 1150 +0.1% -9.4% 37% 36% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 36% -5.2%
10% -18.1% 35% -14.2%
15% -26.0% 34% -22.5%
20% -33.3% 33% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$20 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$883
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses430 / 720
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1150 / 1155
History coverage214d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Over 38¢ 38¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? No 17¢ 16¢ $17 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 3.5 Over 20¢ 0¢ $34 $1 −$33 (-98%)
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 31¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $13 +$11 +82%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $21 +$56 +270%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $71 −$42 -59%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $41 +$36 +89%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $34 −$18 -54%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $12 +$21 +170%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $20 +$22 +112%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $36 +$64 +178%
Sabalenka vs. Pegula: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 20 $4 +$5 +120%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $40 −$7 -17%
Set 2 Winner: Sabalenka vs Pegula Jun 20 $4 +$9 +247%
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Pegula Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $52 −$32 -62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $17 −$17 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $34 +$68 +197%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $30 −$29 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First H Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $57 −$57 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $32 +$46 +146%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $38 +$71 +186%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $10 +$64 +614%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $45 +$53 +117%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Nice leading at halftime? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
British Virgin Islands leading at halftime? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-05-30? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
DR Congo leading at halftime? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
AD Ceuta FC vs. Albacete Balompié: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Will British Virgin Islands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $39 −$30 -77%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Laura Siegemund vs Naomi Osaka Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $56 47m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $3 47m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 17¢ $17 48m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $77 49m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $0 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $13 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $6 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $6 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $35 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 79¢ $28 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 27¢ $2 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 27¢ $0 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 27¢ $0 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 11¢ $8 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 27¢ $18 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $43 2h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $0 3h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $13 3h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $10 3h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2 3h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2 3h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $7 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 12¢ $0 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 12¢ $7 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 37¢ $12 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.84 · official $76.84 (match) · 3500 history records