Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:11:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9152…b04b crypto 249 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$28 (-1%) realized +$64 · open −$92
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%122W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$74
14 days−$128
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% +$16
crypto 28% −$109
sports 20% +$233
other 15% −$208
tech 3% −$52
politics 2% +$19
finance 1% +$1
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +5.8% -4.3% 33% 33% +3.6%
≤30d 75 +2.5% -7.3% 43% 43% -15.1%
≤90d 239 -6.3% -15.2% 51% 45% -9.8%
all 239 -6.3% -15.2% 51% 45% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 45% -9.8%
10% -23.3% 36% -18.5%
15% -30.7% 28% -26.3%
20% -37.5% 19% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized+$64
Unrealized−$92
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses122 / 117
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions10
Markets (closed)239 / 249
History coverage90d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 28¢ 38¢ $40 $54 +$14 (+36%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 34¢ $24 $39 +$15 (+60%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Yes 39¢ 13¢ $75 $25 −$50 (-67%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 79¢ 35¢ $40 $18 −$22 (-55%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 24¢ 21¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 26¢ 14¢ $30 $16 −$14 (-47%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? Yes 34¢ 23¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-33%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? No 6¢ 5¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Kansas City Royals win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-86%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $12 $1 −$11 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 +$17 +114%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +41%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $30 −$1 -3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$31 +307%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$31 +152%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -85%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $15 +$16 +104%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $40 +$136 +340%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $82 +$18 +22%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $30 −$5 -17%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 14 $25 −$1 -4%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 14 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO Jun 13 $52 −$22 -43%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $130 −$130 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 11 $35 −$5 -15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 10 $15 −$5 -36%
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 10 $5 −$3 -56%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 09 $86 −$15 -17%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $41 −$3 -8%
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 09 $15 −$2 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $16 +$2 +11%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 09 $25 −$1 -2%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 09 $10 +$12 +114%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $20 +$7 +35%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $30 +$35 +114%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $20 +$10 +49%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $95 −$63 -67%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $15 +$19 +126%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $25 +$13 +53%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $15 +$3 +21%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $35 +$7 +20%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $35 +$12 +34%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $15 +$9 +62%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $20 −$3 -17%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $25 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $30 1h
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary e BUY No 6¢ $5 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 29h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 30h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 79¢ $40 31h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $49 31h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $35 31h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $30 31h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $29 31h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 35h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 35h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $15 44h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $42 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 90¢ $51 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $10 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 35¢ $20 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 3d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 8¢ $10 3d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 7¢ $3 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 95¢ $31 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $40 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $40 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $15 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $20 3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $29 3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $146 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.50 · official $189.50 (match) · 621 history records