Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:05:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
91 0x914a…1c86 politics 77 markets active 0h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$73 (+5%) realized +$67 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%32W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$271now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$144
7 days+$144
14 days+$144
30 days+$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$68
other 39% +$189
world 8% −$37
sports 5% −$8
economics 3% −$8
weather 2% +$1
tech 2% −$3
crypto 1% −$13
finance 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +159.2% +134.5% 100% 67% +141.8%
≤30d 3 +159.2% +134.5% 100% 67% +141.8%
≤90d 3 +159.2% +134.5% 100% 67% +141.8%
all 72 -6.4% -15.3% 44% 40% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 40% -3.0%
10% -23.4% 35% -12.3%
15% -30.8% 32% -20.8%
20% -37.6% 31% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +167% too few recent
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$11 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$271
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses32 / 40
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)72 / 77
History coverage257d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 23¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Paraguay 34¢ 34¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 20¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $26 +$2 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $31 +$85 +278%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $31 +$57 +185%
Will Donald Trump say "Bibi" during Syria President events on November Dec 17 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Donald Trump say "Crown" during Syria President events on Novembe Dec 17 $7 +$5 +67%
Will Donald Trump say "Please" 7+ times during Syria President events Dec 17 $10 +$10 +96%
Will Donald Trump say "Syria / Syrian" 10+ times during Syria Presiden Dec 17 $7 +$14 +194%
Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Syria President events on November Dec 17 $5 +$18 +354%
Will Donald Trump say "Abraham Accords" during Syria President events Dec 17 $5 +$22 +444%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $80 +$47 +59%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $14 −$13 -95%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $14 −$8 -62%
Will Donald Trump say "Erdogan" during Syria President events on Novem Nov 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Hezbollah" during Syria President events on Nov Nov 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Handsome / Attractive" during Syria President e Nov 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Israel / Gaza" 6+ times during Syria President Nov 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 12+ times during Nov 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Socialist" or "Socialism" during his victory/ Nov 05 $20 +$21 +104%
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Next Mayor" during his victory/concession spe Nov 05 $20 +$4 +20%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66? Nov 05 $5 +$3 +64%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 04 $6 $0 -7%
Will Zohran Mamdani say "New York" or "New Yorker" 10+ times during hi Nov 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Subway" during his victory/concession speech? Nov 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Muslim" or "Islam" during his victory/concess Nov 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Bus" during his victory/concession speech? Nov 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his v Nov 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his victory/conce Nov 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Anti-semitic" during his victory/concession s Nov 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Nov 04 $40 −$2 -4%
Zohran Mamdani Parlay Nov 04 $10 +$1 +10%
Nicolas Sarkozy released from custody by December 31? Nov 04 $20 +$4 +19%
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press Nov 04 $10 +$6 +61%
Will Powell say "Possibility" during October press conference? Nov 04 $10 +$7 +67%
French election called by October 31? Oct 29 $14 +$16 +117%
Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on October 3 Oct 29 $35 −$35 -100%
Grokipedia released by October 31? Oct 27 $20 +$7 +34%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 27 $40 −$20 -51%
Will Bernie say "Gaza" during the GOTV rally with AOC and Zohran on Oc Oct 27 $25 +$12 +47%
Will Bernie say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the GOTV rall Oct 27 $10 −$8 -80%
Will Bernie say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the GOTV rally with AOC a Oct 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on October 23? Oct 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Atlas have an iOS app live by December 31? Oct 25 $20 −$20 -100%
French election called by December 31? Oct 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump pardon Diddy by Friday? Oct 24 $4 +$1 +20%
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%? Oct 23 $40 +$13 +32%
Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Competition" during earnings call? Oct 23 $10 +$8 +80%
Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 10+ times during A Oct 22 $8 +$5 +59%
Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during Australia PM events on Octo Oct 22 $10 +$10 +96%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Australia PM e Oct 22 $7 +$13 +186%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Australia PM events on October 20? Oct 22 $20 +$11 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 35¢ $20 1m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 34¢ $20 3m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 41m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $27 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 96¢ $87 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 26h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 45¢ $46 8d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 26¢ $200 8d
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? SELL Yes $1 232d
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY Yes 36¢ $14 232d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 17¢ $5 232d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 45¢ $14 232d
Will Donald Trump say "Bibi" during Syria President events on November BUY No 56¢ $5 232d
Will Donald Trump say "Erdogan" during Syria President events on Novem BUY Yes 67¢ $20 232d
Will Donald Trump say "Hezbollah" during Syria President events on Nov BUY Yes 71¢ $15 232d
Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Syria President events on November BUY No 22¢ $5 232d
Will Donald Trump say "Handsome / Attractive" during Syria President e BUY Yes 34¢ $5 232d
Will Donald Trump say "Abraham Accords" during Syria President events BUY No 18¢ $5 232d
Will Donald Trump say "Israel / Gaza" 6+ times during Syria President BUY Yes 79¢ $10 232d
Will Donald Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 12+ times during BUY Yes 45¢ $10 232d
Will Donald Trump say "Crown" during Syria President events on Novembe BUY No 60¢ $7 232d
Will Donald Trump say "Please" 7+ times during Syria President events BUY No 51¢ $10 232d
Will Donald Trump say "Syria / Syrian" 10+ times during Syria Presiden BUY No 34¢ $7 232d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY Yes 63¢ $80 233d
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Next Mayor" during his victory/concession spe SELL Yes 70¢ $24 236d
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66? SELL Yes 43¢ $8 236d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes $6 236d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $271.35 · official $271.35 (match) · 136 history records