Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:41:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9147…a4fd other 60 markets active 20h ago coverage 551d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate24%14W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$316per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 71% −$14
politics 16% −$7
other 8% −$2
sports 2% −$6
crypto 2% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.1% -27.7% 0% 0% -27.8%
≤30d 17 -11.9% -20.3% 12% 0% -13.4%
≤90d 49 -5.8% -14.8% 20% 8% -9.8%
all 59 -4.8% -13.9% 24% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 7% -9.7%
10% -22.1% 7% -18.3%
15% -29.6% 7% -26.2%
20% -36.5% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

551d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses14 / 45
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage551d
Avg bet$316
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $168 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $102 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $12 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $30 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $84 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $89 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $83 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 3? May 06 $34 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $86 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $88 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $90 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $89 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $91 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $87 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $91 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $90 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 23 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 23 $86 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $91 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $84 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $91 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 10 $10 +$7 +72%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $13 +$1 +10%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 06 $22 $0 +1%
Based FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 06 $43 $0 +0%
Stars vs. Bruins Apr 02 $21 −$21 -100%
76ers vs. Heat Mar 31 $27 +$33 +121%
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies Mar 30 $20 +$17 +84%
Raptors vs. Suns Mar 27 $29 −$29 -100%
VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Mar 22 $21 +$28 +132%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 20h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $41 2d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $15 4d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $16 4d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 6d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 7d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 59¢ $11 8d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 13d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 13d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 13d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 13d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $15 17d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 17d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 18d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 18d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $21 22d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 24d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 24d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $12 24d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $12 24d
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $33 25d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 25d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.24 · official $41.24 (match) · 223 history records