Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:53:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9146…241a politics 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$287 (+0%) realized +$287 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate17%20W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$1,041per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$767now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$14
14 days−$21
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$74
other 35% −$273
sports 11% +$631
economics 2% −$2
world 1% −$1
crypto 1% −$14
culture 1% −$1
tech 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 70 -11.5% -19.9% 9% 3% -9.5%
all 120 -2.8% -12.1% 17% 10% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 10% -9.3%
10% -20.5% 10% -18.0%
15% -28.2% 6% -25.9%
20% -35.2% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,395) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$8 · ×6.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$767
Realized+$287
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses20 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage138d
Avg bet$1,041
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $766 $767 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,905 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $1,611 −$2 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 14 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,411 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,395 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,297 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $2,545 −$4 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $2,067 −$3 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $1,006 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,205 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $925 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $559 +$1 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $2,385 −$3 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $795 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $2,434 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,273 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,022 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,226 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? May 19 $687 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $1,475 −$2 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 08 $1,483 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $3,921 −$4 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $2,872 −$4 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $3,466 −$4 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $4,071 −$4 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $3,733 −$5 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,387 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $1,375 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $2,693 −$4 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 06 $1,424 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $1,353 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $1,317 −$2 -0%
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Cont May 02 $334 +$1 +0%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control May 02 $357 +$1 +0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $1,327 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,703 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,911 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $3,448 −$3 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 20 $1,346 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $2,048 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,545 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,455 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $1,345 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $3,322 −$3 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $1,357 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,068 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $460 30m
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $460 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $558 4h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $559 7h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $524 25h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $525 27h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $550 27h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $551 30h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $767 2d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $919 4d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $921 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,409 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,411 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,392 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,395 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,295 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,297 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,293 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,295 7d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,245 12d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,247 12d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,006 13d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,006 13d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,249 15d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,251 15d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,204 16d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,205 16d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $923 16d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $925 16d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,074 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $766.79 · official $766.79 (match) · 378 history records