Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:45:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9142…9f0f other 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 299d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate23%16W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$1
other 24% −$2
politics 21% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -0.6% -10.1% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -0.6% -10.1% 20% 0% -9.6%
all 71 +0.7% -8.9% 23% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 4% -9.7%
10% -17.6% 4% -18.3%
15% -25.6% 1% -26.2%
20% -32.9% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

299d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses16 / 55
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage299d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $71 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $70 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $7 $0 -6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $28 −$1 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $74 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $39 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $112 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $35 $0 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 23 $2 $0 -13%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 01 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $14 −$4 -26%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Dec 17 $28 $0 -1%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Nov 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 19 $2 −$1 -30%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Oct 24 $1 +$1 +100%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31? Oct 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 18 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 17 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 17 $1 $0 -7%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on October 31? Oct 17 $20 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Oct 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? Oct 13 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 12 $32 $0 -1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 05 $2 $0 +23%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 04 $21 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $35 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $8 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $27 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $26 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $7 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $20 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $20 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $8 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $2 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $2 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $36 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $35 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $35 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $15 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $38 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.62 · official $34.62 (match) · 362 history records