Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:28:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
91 0x9142…a905 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$127 (-6%) realized −$111 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip
Net edge+40%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$1,052now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$786
7 days+$1,249
14 days+$1,162
30 days+$1,163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$347
crypto 25% +$786
world 11% +$26
tech 2% −$46
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+39.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +302.9% +264.5% 100% 100% +175.2%
≤30d 6 +92.9% +74.5% 83% 67% +116.3%
≤90d 9 +54.2% +39.5% 78% 56% +93.4%
all 9 +54.2% +39.5% 78% 56% +93.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +39.5% 56% +93.4%
10% +26.2% 33% +74.9%
15% +14.0% 22% +58.0%
20% +2.8% 22% +42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +114% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt +114% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$182 vs −$74 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.62 per $1 lost it wins $8.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$1,052
Realized−$111
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage57d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $500 $490 −$10 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 77¢ $43 $41 −$2 (-6%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AN Jun 28 $509 +$786 +154%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Jun 24 $102 +$463 +452%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +32%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $100 +$12 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 +$2 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $100 +$10 +10%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? May 01 $46 −$46 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,051.89 · official $1,051.89 (match) · 37 history records