Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:30:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

91
0x9140…f62c
sports · 209 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$296 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$254 · open −$43
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$111
Realized−$254
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses78 / 111
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions19
Markets (closed)189 / 209
History coverage68d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 19 History 189 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$18
14 days+$5
30 days−$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 22¢ 25¢ $10 $12 +$1 (+14%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Yes 38¢ 40¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+4%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 58¢ 63¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? Yes 89¢ 84¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-7%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $11 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $21 $8 −$13 (-61%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $11 $7 −$4 (-36%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 68¢ 76¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39m? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $21 $2 −$19 (-92%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 48¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-37%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-56%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 32¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-67%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 33¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-74%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Yes 42¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 3? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on May 25? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 +$13 +114%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $11 −$3 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $11 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +67%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $6 +$6 +100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 3? Jun 04 $5 +$1 +10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $4 +$1 +17%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $5 $0 -6%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $5 +$3 +58%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 04 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 04 $5 +$2 +38%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $10 −$6 -58%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $5 $0 +9%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $5 $0 -9%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $5 −$1 -11%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 02 $9 $0 -0%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 02 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2? Jun 01 $5 −$2 -37%
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America Jun 01 $5 $0 +2%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $4 −$4 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +7%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $5 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 3? Jun 01 $0 $0 -97%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $9 −$6 -68%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner May 31 $9 −$1 -10%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1 $0 -11%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) May 31 $2 $0 -6%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $2 $0 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $3 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 31 $3 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 76°F or higher on June 1? May 31 $6 $0 +4%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Japan win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on May 31? May 31 $9 +$2 +29%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 31 $18 +$6 +31%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $17 −$8 -49%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner May 31 $9 $0 +0%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup May 31 $3 +$1 +46%
Spread: Real Zaragoza (-1.5) May 31 $5 $0 -1%
Spread: Vasteraas SK (-2.5) May 31 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on May 31? May 31 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 31? May 31 $5 $0 +5%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $9 +$9 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 31 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? May 31 $10 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 75% −$135
crypto 8% −$72
other 7% −$22
world 4% −$12
weather 3% −$34
politics 1% +$2
culture 1% −$19
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 54m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 1h
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $13 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 9h
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 89¢ $11 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 10h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $7 11h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 12h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 BUY Yes 2¢ $3 12h
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 13h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 14h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 14h
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Dum BUY Yes 19¢ $11 14h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 15h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 15h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 15h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $1 15h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 BUY Yes 6¢ $1 16h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 BUY Yes 6¢ $2 16h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 BUY Yes 6¢ $10 16h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 17h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 BUY Yes 3¢ $4 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $11 17h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $11 18h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 28h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 28h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 59¢ $3 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +24.7% +12.8% 56% 56% +17.6%
≤30d 167 -23.1% -30.4% 41% 28% -31.3%
≤90d 189 -19.7% -27.4% 41% 28% -19.0%
all 189 -19.7% -27.4% 41% 28% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.4% 28% -19.0%
10% -34.3% 21% -26.8%
15% -40.7% 16% -33.9%
20% -46.5% 12% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.96 · official $110.98 (match) · 630 history records