Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:37:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
91 0x9140…8b2e crypto 1576 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 96d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,330 (+20%) realized +$3,330 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%830W / 746L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 97d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 +7.4% -2.8% 51% 51% -1.3%
≤30d 370 +7.5% -2.7% 52% 52% -2.9%
≤90d 1308 +7.5% -2.7% 53% 53% -3.4%
all 1576 +7.2% -3.0% 53% 53% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 53% -3.4%
10% -12.3% 53% -12.7%
15% -20.7% 53% -21.1%
20% -28.5% 53% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,330
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses830 / 746
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1576 / 1576
History coverage97d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1576 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$9 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$9 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$5 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$21 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$13 +112%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$15 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$9 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$11 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$11 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$11 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$12 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$9 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$37 +322%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$13 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$11 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$9 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$16 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$9 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$19 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$11 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$29 +252%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$10 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$10 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$12 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$10 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$18 +159%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $12 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $11 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $12 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $11 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $11 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $11 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $11 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $11 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $11 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $11 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $11 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $12 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $11 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $11 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $11 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $11 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records