Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:19:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x913d…1508 crypto 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,027 (+27%) realized +$741 · open +$286
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +174% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +129% what you keep after slip
Net edge+129%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%9W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,448now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$391
7 days−$549
14 days−$173
30 days−$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% +$634
crypto 30% +$62
sports 17% −$331
world 10% −$391
finance 9% +$139
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+148.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -50.2% -55.0% 20% 20% -84.9%
≤30d 21 +174.3% +148.2% 43% 43% -17.7%
≤90d 21 +174.3% +148.2% 43% 43% -17.7%
all 21 +174.3% +148.2% 43% 43% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +148.2% 43% -17.7%
10% +124.5% 38% -25.6%
15% +102.8% 33% -32.8%
20% +82.9% 29% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +174% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +197% → late +154% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$99 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$1,448
Realized+$741
Unrealized+$286
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses9 / 12
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions8
Markets (closed)21 / 29
History coverage14d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $468 $667 +$199 (+42%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $257 $303 +$46 (+18%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $285 $280 −$5 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $30 $54 +$24 (+79%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $47 $45 −$2 (-5%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $30 $40 +$10 (+34%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $25 $38 +$13 (+51%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $391 −$391 -100%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $45 −$21 -47%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $26 −$6 -24%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $48 +$5 +11%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 13 $149 −$136 -91%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 06 $152 −$145 -96%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? Jun 06 $95 +$24 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 06 $66 −$62 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 06 $84 +$114 +136%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 06 $79 +$54 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 06 $126 −$126 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 06 $26 +$10 +40%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $170 −$170 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 06 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 06 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 06 $26 +$51 +196%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 06 $630 +$615 +98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $76 −$74 -97%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $67 +$93 +138%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $253 +$49 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 52m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 52m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 12¢ $15 53m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $28 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 16¢ $28 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 22h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $52 22h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 22h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $106 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $106 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $32 22h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 22h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 47h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 47h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 47h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 47h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $97 47h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $160 47h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 47h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 47h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 47h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 47h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $104 47h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $104 47h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $104 47h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 47h
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $38 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,448.37 · official $1,437.86 (match) · 203 history records