Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:19:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x913c…39b3 sports 208 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 29d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (115 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$230,563 (+60%) realized +$230,932 · open −$369
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +90% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +41% what you keep after slip
Net edge+41%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%144W / 306L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,861per market
Trades / day114.9pace
Fees−$8,669est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 29d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$88,135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (115 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+72.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 246 +125.1% +103.7% 14% 14% -91.1%
≤30d 450 +90.4% +72.3% 32% 30% -20.5%
≤90d 450 +90.4% +72.3% 32% 30% -20.5%
all 450 +90.4% +72.3% 32% 30% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover114.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +72.3% 30% -20.5%
10% +55.8% 28% -28.1%
15% ← realistic here +40.8% 28% -35.1%
20% +27.0% 26% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +90% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$1,363) neutral
Persistence
early +39% → late +142% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
12.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,463 vs −$937 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$230,932
Unrealized−$369
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses144 / 306
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$8,669
Open positions1
Markets (closed)450 / 208
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$1,861
Trades / day114.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 450 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Amaru Gaming 26¢ 0¢ $370 $1 −$369 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 335 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $0 +$168 +33936%
Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $0 +$196 +64701%
Dota 2: OG vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1 +$269 +53536%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 17 $0 −$262 -571943%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1 +$118 +20720%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $0 +$47 +11285%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $0 +$127 +270305%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $0 +$527 +167345%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $0 −$167 -56211%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $0 +$243 +104969%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $0 +$259 +78451%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $0 +$543 +205427%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 17 $0 +$211 +233661%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs South America Rejects - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $0 +$246 +302722%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs QoR - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $0 −$50 -51428%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs QoR - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $0 −$3 -6717%
Valorant: Leviatán Academy vs University War - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $0 +$2 +1763%
LoL: Ici Japon Corp. Esport vs Vitality.Bee (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Jun 17 $0 −$250 -378926%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $0 +$50 +54559%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $682 −$682 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs L1ga Team (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Senshi Esports Club vs Dynasty (BO3) - Road Of Legends Regular Se Jun 17 $993 −$993 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $2,680 −$2,680 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Team Stels - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Dota 2: LiXO eSports vs NAVI Junior - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group St Jun 17 $147 −$147 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 17 $4 −$2,171 -60902%
LoL: Zena Esports vs Aeterna Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $193 −$193 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Two Move - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Team Lynx - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $417 −$417 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs South America Rejects - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $7,477 −$11,113 -149%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $230 +$461 +200%
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs SU Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $194 −$194 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $425 −$312 -73%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $4,567 −$4,567 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $26 −$9 -34%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $19 −$192 -1022%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $300 −$600 -200%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $691 −$691 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $4 −$9 -242%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $900 −$900 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Jun 17 $2,206 −$2,219 -101%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $2,260 −$1,969 -87%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $9 −$284 -3073%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 17 $2 +$33 +1818%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs BIG (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Jun 17 $105 −$137 -130%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $2,179 −$2,704 -124%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 7¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 11¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 11¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 13¢ $24 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 11¢ $18 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 12¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 22¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 22¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 22¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 22¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 22¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 22¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 22¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 22¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 26¢ $136 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 26¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 26¢ $342 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 26¢ $22 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 26¢ $106 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 20¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 17¢ $31 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 19¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 18¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 16¢ $16 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 16¢ $77 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 15¢ $7 1h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 46¢ $11 6d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 46¢ $10 6d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 49¢ $34 6d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 53¢ $213 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.76 · official $0.71 · 3500 history records