Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:48:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

91 0x9138…148c sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$75 (+110%) realized +$76 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +183% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +136% what you keep after slip

Net edge+136%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%3W / 6L

Drawdown16%max

Avg bet$7per market

Trades / day10.9pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+156.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+183.1%	+156.1%	33%	33%	+177.3%
≤30d	9	+183.1%	+156.1%	33%	33%	+177.3%
≤90d	9	+183.1%	+156.1%	33%	33%	+177.3%
all	9	+183.1%	+156.1%	33%	33%	+177.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.9 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+156.1%	33%	+177.3%
10%	+131.6%	33%	+150.8%
15%	+109.2%	33%	+126.5%
20%	+88.7%	33%	+104.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 85% · top 2 95% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +206% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +183% · $-wt +206% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$30 vs −$2 · ×12.7 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×6.35 per $1 lost it wins $6.35

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$29

Realized+$76

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses3 / 6

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)9 / 10

History coverage2d

Avg bet$7

Trades / day10.9

Drawdown16%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$30	$29	−$1 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$3	+$4	+142%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$2	−$1	-72%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime?	Jun 17	$3	−$2	-83%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$9	−$3	-34%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 16	$4	$0	-9%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$3	−$3	-100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$4	−$4	-100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$4	+$10	+238%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$5	+$77	+1666%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	33¢	$7	1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	4¢	$1	1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$3	1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$31	1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	13¢	$2	1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime?	SELL Yes	7¢	$0	5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	40¢	$3	10h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	SELL Yes	17¢	$6	10h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	33¢	$1	11h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$3	11h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	SELL Yes	20¢	$4	11h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$4	22h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$5	22h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$4	30h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$3	36h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	14¢	$4	36h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$82	36h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	5¢	$5	40h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.12 · official $29.12 (match) · 21 history records