Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:28:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
91 0x9138…ef73 sports 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate76%62W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days+$24
14 days−$118
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$251
other 33% +$209
economics 7% +$2
tech 2% +$9
world 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -0.8% -10.2% 77% 18% -9.2%
≤30d 71 -2.6% -11.9% 76% 20% -9.8%
≤90d 71 -2.6% -11.9% 76% 20% -9.8%
all 82 -3.3% -12.5% 76% 17% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 17% -9.7%
10% -20.9% 7% -18.4%
15% -28.5% 5% -26.3%
20% -35.5% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$30 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses62 / 20
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 82
History coverage165d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $101 +$20 +19%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $301 +$20 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $300 +$7 +2%
Norway vs. France: O/U 7.5 Jun 26 $100 +$4 +4%
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $100 +$5 +5%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $101 −$100 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $11 +$2 +18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 −$1 -26%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $50 −$6 -13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$7 +13%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$3 +6%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $300 +$6 +2%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $1,400 +$4 +0%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$3 +11%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $600 +$15 +2%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $110 +$3 +3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $201 −$4 -2%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$6 +6%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $210 +$13 +6%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $220 +$5 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 $0 +5%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$92 +46%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$20 +388%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $100 +$2 +2%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $200 +$5 +2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $300 +$9 +3%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$5 -46%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $50 +$2 +4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $59 +$2 +4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 +$4 +20%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $60 $0 +0%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $100 +$2 +2%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $30 +$10 +34%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $100 +$5 +5%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $110 +$11 +10%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 94¢ $301 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 98¢ $300 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 83¢ $101 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 96¢ $100 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $101 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 95¢ $100 2h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $50 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 75¢ $13 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 62¢ $11 22h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $100 30h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 44h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 81¢ $44 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $50 46h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $50 47h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 95¢ $30 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 100¢ $1,400 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 98¢ $300 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 98¢ $200 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $200 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $200 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 85¢ $197 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $100 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $201 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $110 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 180 history records