Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:55:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9135…b8dd other 173 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$87 (-0%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%23W / 149L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$22
14 days−$57
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$38
politics 29% −$49
sports 17% −$54
crypto 8% −$3
economics 5% −$1
finance 4% −$11
world 3% −$2
culture 3% −$5
tech 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -1.3% -10.7% 8% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 77 -1.4% -10.8% 4% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 159 -0.9% -10.3% 13% 0% -10.2%
all 172 -0.9% -10.3% 13% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -10.2%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses23 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)172 / 173
History coverage101d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 98¢ 97¢ $21 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 18 $55 −$1 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $54 $0 -1%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $100 −$2 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 17 $59 $0 -1%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $108 −$3 -3%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 16 $64 −$1 -1%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $55 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 16 $128 $0 +0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $64 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $79 −$1 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $410 −$2 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 14 $71 −$4 -5%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $169 −$1 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $123 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 13 $32 −$2 -8%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $75 −$1 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $105 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 13 $33 $0 +1%
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $7 $0 -3%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $64 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $458 −$2 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $184 −$1 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $19 $0 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $45 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 09 $52 −$22 -43%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $341 −$1 -0%
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 07 $51 −$1 -3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 07 $86 −$1 -2%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 06 $48 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $162 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $53 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 05 $135 −$2 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $205 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $319 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $407 −$1 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $41 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $58 $0 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 03 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $46 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $221 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $21 48m
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $58 1h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $59 9h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $10 10h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $10 14h
Will the Utah Mammoth be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 96¢ $54 14h
Will the Utah Mammoth be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 97¢ $55 19h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $52 20h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $52 25h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $54 25h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 34h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $56 34h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $57 38h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $58 39h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $59 46h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $55 46h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $27 2d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $29 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $64 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $65 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 97¢ $64 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 98¢ $64 2d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 95¢ $55 2d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $55 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $61 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $61 3d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $64 3d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $64 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $68 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $68 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.40 · official $20.41 (match) · 727 history records