Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:38:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9132…b6e5 sports 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$747 (-15%) realized −$775 · open +$28
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%46W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$31
14 days−$473
30 days−$473
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$707
other 15% +$72
world 3% −$86
crypto 2% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -6.8% -15.7% 45% 45% -2.8%
≤30d 35 -23.7% -31.0% 31% 31% -27.3%
≤90d 95 -14.5% -22.6% 48% 48% -24.4%
all 95 -14.5% -22.6% 48% 48% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 48% -24.4%
10% -30.0% 42% -31.6%
15% -36.8% 29% -38.2%
20% -43.0% 23% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$43 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$248
Realized−$775
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses46 / 49
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions7
Markets (closed)95 / 102
History coverage75d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $54 +$24 (+82%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $60 $53 −$7 (-11%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $42 +$12 (+39%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$71 +70%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $31 −$23 -74%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $68 +$61 +89%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $27 −$9 -32%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $39 −$22 -56%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $27 +$9 +33%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $31 +$12 +40%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $71 −$70 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $71 −$23 -33%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $31 +$14 +46%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $85 +$152 +177%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $113 −$91 -81%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $183 −$181 -99%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 −$4 -7%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 −$3 -6%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $180 −$177 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$32 -79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$3 -29%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$83 +82%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$41 -80%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $92 −$31 -34%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $76 +$102 +134%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $140 +$49 +35%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $163 +$37 +23%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $201 −$5 -2%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Hawks vs. Knicks May 15 $55 +$22 +41%
Bucks vs. 76ers May 15 $50 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 01 $8 −$8 -97%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 29 $13 −$13 -95%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $35 −$34 -98%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $40 +$28 +71%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $24 +$14 +60%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $163 −$161 -99%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $126 +$35 +28%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 25 $50 −$49 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 38m
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes $8 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 3h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $71 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $129 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 52¢ $68 4h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 18h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $4 29h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 3d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 25¢ $16 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $19 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $27 4d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 18¢ $17 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $39 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $34 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 4d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 42¢ $36 4d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 31¢ $27 4d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $43 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $71 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 8d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 26¢ $48 8d
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? SELL Yes 20¢ $45 8d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $71 8d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 36¢ $51 8d
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $247.95 · official $247.95 (match) · 212 history records