Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:20:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

91 0x9131…f583 crypto 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized +$13 · open −$20

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip

Net edge-1%after slip

Net WR52%break-even

Win rate57%12W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$30per market

Trades / day11.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +52%

net ROI/market (all)+7.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+18.6%	+7.3%	57%	52%	-6.2%
≤30d	21	+18.6%	+7.3%	57%	52%	-6.2%
≤90d	21	+18.6%	+7.3%	57%	52%	-6.2%
all	21	+18.6%	+7.3%	57%	52%	-6.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+7.3%	52%	-6.2%
10%	-3.0%	48%	-15.1%
15%	-12.3%	38%	-23.3%
20%	-20.9%	38%	-30.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

8% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +19% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -2% → late +37% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$19 vs −$22 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.12 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$13

Unrealized−$20

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses12 / 9

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 22

History coverage4d

Avg bet$30

Trades / day11.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	23¢	0¢	$20	$0	−$20 (-98%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET	Jun 26	$121	+$20	+17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Jun 26	$11	+$9	+86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Jun 26	$42	+$11	+26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Jun 26	$16	−$15	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Jun 26	$42	+$25	+60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Jun 26	$11	−$11	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Jun 26	$71	+$19	+27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Jun 26	$11	+$23	+217%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Jun 26	$14	−$3	-23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Jun 26	$19	+$45	+240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5AM ET	Jun 26	$79	−$31	-40%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Jun 26	$8	−$8	-100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Jun 26	$31	−$24	-76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Jun 22	$50	−$50	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET	Jun 22	$21	−$21	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET	Jun 22	$21	+$49	+232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Jun 22	$12	+$1	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Jun 22	$12	+$9	+71%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Jun 22	$8	+$5	+57%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Jun 22	$36	−$36	-100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Jun 22	$10	+$9	+89%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	BUY Up	23¢	$21	2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$141	21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET	BUY Down	84¢	$121	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	SELL Down	27¢	$20	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	BUY Down	13¢	$11	53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	SELL Down	38¢	$53	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	BUY Down	27¢	$42	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	SELL Up	1¢	$0	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	BUY Up	39¢	$16	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$57	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	SELL Down	14¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Down	30¢	$42	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$90	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	BUY Down	77¢	$71	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	BUY Down	12¢	$11	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	SELL Down	94¢	$33	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	BUY Down	28¢	$11	2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	SELL Down	34¢	$10	3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	BUY Down	40¢	$14	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	SELL Down	97¢	$63	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Down	27¢	$19	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5AM ET	SELL Up	12¢	$18	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5AM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$52	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5AM ET	SELL Up	36¢	$29	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5AM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$27	4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$8	5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	SELL Up	4¢	$0	5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	SELL Up	13¢	$7	5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	BUY Up	43¢	$31	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$50	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.44 · official $8.33 · 49 history records