Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:45:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
91 0x912e…0eae sports 1047 markets active 0h ago coverage 109d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 108d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,380 (+2%) realized +$1,424 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate35%380W / 714L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day25.3pace
Fees−$675est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$326now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 109d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 -46.0% -51.2% 21% 15% -31.4%
≤30d 363 -22.3% -29.7% 31% 20% -15.2%
≤90d 940 -19.4% -27.1% 34% 23% -11.8%
all 1094 -17.7% -25.5% 35% 24% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.5% 24% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -32.7% 19% -19.7%
15% -39.2% 15% -27.4%
20% -45.1% 13% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$15 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$326
Realized+$1,424
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses380 / 714
Est. fees paid−$675
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1094 / 1047
History coverage109d ⚠
Avg bet$64
Trades / day25.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1094 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 58¢ 58¢ $97 $97 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner 100 Thieves 81¢ 100¢ $72 $88 +$16 (+23%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Spirit 63¢ 100¢ $45 $71 +$26 (+59%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 42¢ 42¢ $69 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner GenOne 16¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 39¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 383 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Se Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs UCAM Esports Club - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Wildcard - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Qu Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Valorant: SaD Esports vs QoR - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Valorant: Chivas Esports vs LYON - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs Bad Luck - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Valorant: MIBR vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffs Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $141 −$141 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo W7M vs ODDIK - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Pigeons vs 8Sins (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Jun 20 $64 −$64 -100%
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs 100 Thieves GC (BO3) - VCT Game Changers Nor Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs eLITenergy (BO3) - ESL Challenger L Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: QoR vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: OG vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Qualifi Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Play Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Valorant: MIBR vs FURIA Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - BetBoom RUSH B! Summit Playoff Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs SPARTA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs fnatic - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $72 −$72 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Sharks (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs Voca (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: American Qualifi Jun 20 $78 −$78 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs GoodGame Club (BO3) - META Cup Playoffs Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group St Jun 20 $61 −$61 -100%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Alliance (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europ Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Qual Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - LCK Ch Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs kONO.ECF (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #16 Group Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN Freecs - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Vantex Esports vs Francesinhas - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Lock In Playoffs Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - CCT South America Ser Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN Freecs - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $55 −$55 -100%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming - Game 2 Winne Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Heroic (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs WW Team (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 64¢ $47 4m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $30 8m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $40 27m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 54¢ $52 31m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 63¢ $45 50m
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 82¢ $60 51m
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 13¢ $11 53m
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 78¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 33¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $28 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY TDK 31¢ $2 10h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY REKONIX 78¢ $37 11h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 15¢ $7 11h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 59¢ $31 21h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $19 21h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 51¢ $25 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $23 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $26 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 37¢ $22 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 46¢ $26 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 33¢ $14 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $15 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 19¢ $10 23h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 46¢ $44 24h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 14¢ $0 44h
Valorant: Leviatán Academy vs ShindeN - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Academy 34¢ $3 44h
Valorant: Leviatán Academy vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: BUY ShindeN 78¢ $31 45h
Valorant: Leviatán Academy vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: BUY Leviatán Academy 26¢ $11 45h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY OXEN 37¢ $2 45h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 2 Winner BUY OXEN 32¢ $22 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $325.78 · official $325.78 (match) · 3500 history records