Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x912c…4650 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate62%20W / 12L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$1
other 17% $0
crypto 9% −$1
politics 8% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +0.3% -9.2% 67% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 6 +0.3% -9.2% 67% 0% -9.2%
all 32 -2.3% -11.6% 62% 6% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 6% -8.8%
10% -20.1% 3% -17.5%
15% -27.8% 3% -25.5%
20% -34.9% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses20 / 12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage446d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $4 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $72 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $92 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $34 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $38 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 16 $3 $0 -9%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 16 $17 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jun 26 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $7 $0 +5%
Will Francesco Acerbi be named the Champions League Final man of the m Jun 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? May 29 $16 $0 -0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 28 $17 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by May 31? May 27 $8 $0 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 26 $3 +$4 +139%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in May? May 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $105K and $106K on May 23? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? May 22 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Apr 04 $20 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Apr 03 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Apr 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 01 $1 $0 -43%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $0 $0 +18%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 in March? Mar 30 $23 $0 +1%
Trump meets with Zelenskyy in March? Mar 30 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 1h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $38 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $39 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $13 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $22 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $8 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $27 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $39 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $38 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $35 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $34 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $15 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $4 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $30 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $4 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $38 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $11 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.27 · official $30.94 (match) · 110 history records