Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:07:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x912c…f468 sports 630 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 107d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,581 (-15%) realized −$3,182 · open −$399
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate54%337W / 290L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day25.4pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,454
7 days+$926
14 days+$239
30 days−$3,109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$1,375
sports 33% −$1,779
crypto 2% −$466
world 1% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -38.6% -44.4% 20% 20% +68.9%
≤30d 83 +3.5% -6.4% 66% 37% -23.4%
≤90d 124 -12.9% -21.2% 55% 30% -23.7%
all 627 -2.3% -11.6% 54% 24% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 24% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 17% -27.0%
15% -27.8% 13% -34.1%
20% -34.8% 11% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +10% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$28 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$3,182
Unrealized−$399
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses337 / 290
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions2
Markets (closed)627 / 630
History coverage107d ⚠
Avg bet$39
Trades / day25.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 627 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 23¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+36%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 56¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $708 +$1,454 +205%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $202 −$198 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $51 −$50 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $200 −$180 -90%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3,614 +$531 +15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $201 +$125 +62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,213 −$1,116 -92%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$95 +186%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $70 −$69 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $201 −$199 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$138 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $405 +$278 +69%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $354 −$350 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $500 +$10 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $558 −$464 -83%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$142 +140%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $505 +$264 +52%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $338 +$5 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,537 −$1,003 -65%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,085 −$2,037 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $879 −$296 -34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $609 +$628 +103%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $405 −$320 -79%
West Bromwich Albion FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Beijing Ducks vs. Guangzhou Loong Lions Jun 12 $3 +$1 +17%
Leicester City FC vs. Preston North End FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1 +$3 +245%
Middlesbrough FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Will Stoke City FC win on 2026-04-03? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +45%
Middlesbrough FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $7 −$1 -18%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-04-03? Jun 12 $10 −$4 -42%
Will AVS Futebol win on 2026-04-03? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Oxford United FC win on 2026-04-03? Jun 12 $6 $0 +4%
Will Birmingham City FC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +56%
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $3 +$3 +108%
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-04-03? Jun 12 $46 −$39 -86%
Oxford United FC vs. Hull City AFC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $11 −$5 -44%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees Jun 12 $5 +$3 +72%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Corentin Moutet vs Marco Trungelliti Jun 12 $3 +$5 +184%
Zhejiang Golden Bulls vs. Liaoning Flying Leopards Jun 12 $8 +$2 +22%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - PGL Astana: European Closed Jun 12 $15 −$4 -24%
Will Sheffield Wednesday FC win on 2026-04-03? Jun 12 $11 +$1 +12%
Fujian Sturgeons vs. Qingdao Eagles Jun 12 $14 −$1 -6%
Oxford United FC vs. Hull City AFC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $8 +$6 +75%
Will West Bromwich Albion FC win on 2026-04-03? Jun 12 $12 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $199 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 6h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? SELL Yes $4 2d
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $94 2d
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 2d
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $51 5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 79¢ $101 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 14¢ $19 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $100 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $100 6d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $6 7d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $15 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $857 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $874 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $583 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $777 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,036 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.74 · official $1.74 (match) · 3500 history records