Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:26:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x912b…bc67 sports 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$59 (-6%) realized −$46 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%19W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$100
7 days+$88
14 days+$112
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$134
crypto 23% −$118
other 20% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -8.3% -17.0% 37% 37% +2.3%
≤30d 54 -16.4% -24.4% 35% 35% -1.8%
≤90d 54 -16.4% -24.4% 35% 35% -1.8%
all 54 -16.4% -24.4% 35% 35% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 35% -1.8%
10% -31.6% 33% -11.2%
15% -38.2% 31% -19.7%
20% -44.3% 26% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$11 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$46
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses19 / 35
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)54 / 65
History coverage16d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+43%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Yes 70¢ 64¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
France vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Over 40¢ 40¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Team Liquid 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
First Blood in Game 3? Team Liquid 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
First Blood in Game 2? Jun 28 $10 +$6 +63%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $42 +$36 +86%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $30 +$5 +16%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Jun 26 $34 +$71 +206%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $17 +$13 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $69 −$66 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$17 +390%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $68 +$43 +64%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $48 −$47 -98%
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 24 $65 +$51 +80%
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $10 +$14 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$10 +227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$17 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 24 $7 +$16 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Colombia to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 24 $66 +$27 +41%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? AN Jun 23 $10 +$39 +381%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $58 +$29 +50%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
First Blood in Game 3? BUY Team Liquid 41¢ $10 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 16¢ $10 1h
France vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $15 1h
First Blood in Game 2? SELL T1 99¢ $17 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $78 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 17¢ $2 2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 30¢ $10 2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 86¢ $30 2h
First Blood in Game 2? BUY T1 60¢ $10 2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $35 2h
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? BUY No 1¢ $1 2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 86¢ $30 3h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND SELL 98¢ $105 33h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists SELL Yes 0¢ $0 33h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 25¢ $10 34h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $10 34h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $10 34h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? SELL Yes 9¢ $31 34h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 31¢ $34 40h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $17 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.51 · official $61.51 (match) · 184 history records