Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:35:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x912a…3326 crypto 1614 markets active 0h ago coverage 119d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 119d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$1 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate92%1484W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$2
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2
other 0% −$2
sports 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +1.3% -8.4% 88% 50% -11.3%
≤30d 107 -4.8% -13.8% 82% 64% -14.7%
≤90d 802 +0.2% -9.3% 93% 17% -9.3%
all 1613 +0.2% -9.4% 92% 10% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 10% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 1% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses1484 / 129
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1613 / 1614
History coverage119d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1613 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? No 93¢ 99¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jordan 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 90¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 6h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 76¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.65 · official $3.67 (match) · 3500 history records