Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:04:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x912a…0f92 crypto 290 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (2947 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$175,554 (+718%) realized +$175,553 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate27%175W / 485L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day2946.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3,856
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2947 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-42.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 660 -36.7% -42.7% 27% 19% -22.6%
≤30d 660 -36.7% -42.7% 27% 19% -22.6%
≤90d 660 -36.7% -42.7% 27% 19% -22.6%
all 660 -36.7% -42.7% 27% 19% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2946.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.7% 19% -22.6%
10% ← realistic here -48.2% 15% -30.0%
15% -53.2% 12% -36.8%
20% -57.8% 11% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -76% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$21 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,247
Realized+$175,553
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses175 / 485
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions33
Markets (closed)660 / 290
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$84
Trades / day2946.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 660 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 94¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 82¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? No 40¢ 48¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+18%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 77¢ 80¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 97¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison? No 17¢ 97¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+469%)
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? No 58¢ 48¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 6¢ 16¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+166%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 53¢ 36¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-33%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 24¢ 94¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+294%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-71%)
Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 85¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+18%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-20%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+135%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-68%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 20¢ 42¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+107%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-38%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+41%)
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-38%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-84%)
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-64%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 458 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $237 +$70 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $124 +$123 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $55 +$132 +241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$33 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $49 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$15 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +132%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +89%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$1 +335%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +56%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +400%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +355%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +25%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +122%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +1012%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +25%
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +144%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +138%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +18%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +400%
Will Canada win the 2025 SailGP Championship Season 5? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jun 16 $0 +$1 +231%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 16 $0 $0 -200%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $16 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $95 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 13m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $60 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $35 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $11 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $48 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $32 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $31 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $15 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $11 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $43 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $17 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $15 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $8 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $6 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $6 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,247.06 · official $1,229.43 · 3500 history records