Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:15:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
91 0x9126…3eee other 10 markets active 2d ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$11 (+29%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$5
sports 16% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+33.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +47.8% +33.7% 40% 40% +15.4%
≤30d 10 +47.8% +33.7% 40% 40% +15.4%
≤90d 10 +47.8% +33.7% 40% 40% +15.4%
all 10 +47.8% +33.7% 40% 40% +15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.7% 40% +15.4%
10% +20.9% 40% +4.4%
15% +9.2% 40% -5.7%
20% -1.5% 40% -14.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage5d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +442%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$7 +324%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $14 +$14 +100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -28%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 +$1 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $1 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 3d
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 100¢ $9 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 23¢ $1 5d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 23¢ $1 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $8 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $1 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records