Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:31:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9125…d923 other 260 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$90 (-0%) realized −$90 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%9W / 250L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$18
14 days−$30
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$40
sports 26% −$30
economics 7% −$11
crypto 7% −$9
politics 7% −$5
culture 5% −$5
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 167 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 259 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses9 / 250
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)259 / 260
History coverage140d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 24 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $279 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 24 $504 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $220 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $212 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 24 $47 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 23 $229 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $332 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $380 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $188 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 22 $200 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 22 $582 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $160 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $116 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 22 $368 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $655 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $110 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 21 $337 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $243 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $182 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $498 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 20 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $364 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $417 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $378 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $193 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $217 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $129 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $224 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $358 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $142 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $181 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $430 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $390 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $584 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $103 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $190 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $470 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $458 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 1h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 5h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $46 7h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 9h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $47 10h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 12h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 14h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $47 14h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $47 15h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $47 15h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $47 23h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $47 25h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $47 27h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $47 32h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $47 34h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $47 34h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $47 36h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $47 38h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $47 40h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $47 44h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $47 45h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $47 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $47 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $47 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $47 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $48 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.28 · official $46.28 (match) · 1467 history records