Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:47:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9121…bd6c crypto 1016 markets active 5d ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 88d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,023 (-7%) realized −$2,023 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate36%360W / 654L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day33.7pace
Fees−$323est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,061
14 days−$1,187
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$630
crypto 27% −$826
finance 10% +$212
other 5% −$243
politics 2% −$111
world 1% +$3
weather 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -43.6% -49.0% 20% 18% -70.5%
≤30d 226 -7.0% -15.9% 35% 32% -9.9%
≤90d 953 -8.5% -17.2% 35% 31% -14.5%
all 1014 -7.9% -16.7% 36% 31% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 31% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 27% -22.6%
15% -31.9% 24% -30.1%
20% -38.6% 19% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$15 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,023
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses360 / 654
Est. fees paid−$323
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1014 / 1016
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day33.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1014 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $65 −$48 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $19 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $15 −$6 -39%
Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$6 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$8 +152%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $28 −$18 -62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $27 −$20 -73%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $39 −$18 -46%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $103 −$63 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$7 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$3 -42%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $191 −$186 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 11 $112 −$6 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $24 −$24 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $64 −$64 -100%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 11 $76 −$52 -68%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 11 $82 −$82 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 11 $170 −$170 -100%
ITF Wuning: Rina Saigo vs Sonja Zhiyenbayeva Jun 11 $23 −$23 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $745 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 5? Jun 11 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -96%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -6%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $70 −$68 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $20 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $43 −$13 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $41 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$4 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 -3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$5 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +11%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $39 −$29 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2AM ET Jun 10 $158 −$79 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$11 -43%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $228 +$8 +4%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 10 $25 +$42 +166%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $28 +$8 +29%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $25 −$16 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals $17 4d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 10¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 4d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 15¢ $21 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL $21 4d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 16¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 4d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Kansas City Royals 15¢ $15 4d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals $9 4d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals $0 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL $9 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL $0 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY $5 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY $14 4d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Germ BUY $8 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 5d
Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY $17 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: United States ( BUY 11¢ $10 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: United States ( BUY 11¢ $10 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: United States ( BUY 11¢ $13 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 12? SELL Yes $10 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 12? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 12? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 12? SELL Yes $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records