Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9120…2fcc politics 293 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d only
✗ bot/MM pace (256 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$45 (-1%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate23%67W / 229L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day255.8pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$3
other 26% −$2
world 8% $0
tech 8% −$1
culture 7% −$1
economics 7% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (256 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 -1.0% -10.4% 23% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 296 -0.7% -10.1% 23% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 296 -0.7% -10.1% 23% 0% -9.7%
all 296 -0.7% -10.1% 23% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover255.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 0% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses67 / 229
Open positions2
Markets (closed)296 / 293
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day255.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 296 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? Jun 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 17 $25 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $23 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $3 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Australia? Jun 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $25 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -5%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $4 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $19 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $23 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $45 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 16 $25 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 16 $19 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $19 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $13 $0 +0%
2026 Balance of Power: Other Jun 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 16 $3 $0 -1%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $17 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $21 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $18 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $6 $0 -1%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 16 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1 11m
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $2 11m
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? SELL No 100¢ $3 12m
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? BUY No 100¢ $3 12m
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 12m
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $3 1h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Australia? SELL No 100¢ $4 1h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Australia? BUY No 100¢ $4 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $0 6h
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 6h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1 6h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $2 6h
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 7h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $2 7h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $2 7h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $4 7h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $4 7h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $0 8h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $2 8h
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $2 8h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $2 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.86 · official $11.73 (match) · 3500 history records