Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:32:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x911e…0f46 other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$126 (-21%) realized −$123 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%3W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$120
14 days−$145
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$122
sports 15% −$21
tech 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-48.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -37.2% -43.2% 14% 14% -30.4%
≤30d 23 -42.6% -48.1% 13% 13% -33.7%
≤90d 23 -42.6% -48.1% 13% 13% -33.7%
all 23 -42.6% -48.1% 13% 13% -33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.1% 13% -33.7%
10% -53.1% 9% -40.1%
15% -57.6% 9% -45.9%
20% -61.8% 4% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$10 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$123
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses3 / 20
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage8d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 −$15 -59%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $15 $0 -1%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 -8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -4%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$2 -10%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 −$1 -4%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $27 +$13 +48%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -15%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $152 +$21 +14%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -8%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$6 -30%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$4 -27%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $41 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $10 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 39¢ $15 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY 37¢ $10 5h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 44¢ $5 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 5h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 5h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 38¢ $15 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 40¢ $18 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Algeria 58¢ $0 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Algeria 58¢ $14 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 59¢ $15 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $74 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $19 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 6d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 6d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 6d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.27 · official $37.27 (match) · 43 history records