Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:26:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x911d…169f other 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$502 (-1%) realized −$501 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate4%5W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$466per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% −$76
crypto 27% −$1
economics 17% −$22
other 9% −$37
sports 8% −$400
world 3% −$21
tech 2% −$3
culture 1% −$2
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 9 -6.0% -14.9% 0% 0% -14.2%
≤90d 29 -22.6% -30.0% 0% 0% -12.4%
all 117 -5.8% -14.8% 4% 1% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 1% -10.4%
10% -23.0% 0% -19.0%
15% -30.4% 0% -26.8%
20% -37.2% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$557) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$501
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses5 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)117 / 119
History coverage171d
Avg bet$466
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $60 −$1 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $210 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $50 −$10 -20%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 24 $110 −$24 -22%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $72 −$2 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 24 $44 −$2 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $110 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 15 $4,918 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 15 $2,903 −$4 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $3,636 −$47 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 15 $321 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $400 −$5 -1%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 03 $3,280 −$4 -0%
Jazz vs. Bucks Mar 24 $11 −$11 -100%
76ers vs. Pacers Mar 24 $60 −$60 -100%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Mar 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Nuggets vs. Warriors Mar 24 $245 −$245 -100%
Celtics vs. Bucks Mar 24 $78 −$78 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Nets Mar 24 $36 −$36 -100%
T20 Series New Zealand vs South Africa: New Zealand vs South Africa Mar 24 $30 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - March 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Mar 24 $40 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - March 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Mar 24 $50 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - March 15, 4AM ET Mar 24 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Mar 24 $50 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 4AM ET Mar 24 $62 $0 +0%
National Cricket League, Women: Western Australia vs ACT Meteors Mar 24 $80 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 15? Mar 24 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 15 $162 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - March 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 15 $262 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 15 $1,838 −$2 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Mar 15 $561 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 12 $263 −$1 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $2,121 −$3 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 09 $200 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 09 $500 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 09 $81 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 7? Mar 09 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8AM ET Mar 09 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Mar 09 $181 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8AM ET Mar 09 $200 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 07 $500 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 07 $93 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Mar 07 $493 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 06 $100 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 05 $1,857 −$1 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 9AM ET Mar 03 $594 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 03 $594 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $50 50m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $60 51m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $99 51m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $50 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $60 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $100 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $40 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 26d
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? SELL Yes 45¢ $86 26d
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 55¢ $110 26d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $70 26d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $72 26d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? SELL No 21¢ $42 26d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY No 22¢ $44 26d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? SELL No 54¢ $108 26d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? BUY No 55¢ $110 26d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $2,900 35d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 75¢ $1,977 35d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $2,903 35d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 75¢ $2,020 35d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 74¢ $196 45d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 74¢ $200 45d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 82¢ $230 76d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 82¢ $230 76d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 88¢ $30 96d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 100¢ $108 96d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $108 96d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 88¢ $30 96d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $262 99d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 82¢ $100 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.10 · official $7.10 (match) · 372 history records