Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:18:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
91 0x911c…dabc crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+5%) realized +$24 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate76%29W / 9L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$4
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$10
other 37% +$15
sports 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +13.0% +2.3% 100% 100% +2.3%
≤30d 24 -7.9% -16.7% 75% 29% -7.7%
≤90d 38 -5.3% -14.3% 76% 34% -5.6%
all 38 -5.3% -14.3% 76% 34% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 34% -5.6%
10% -22.5% 16% -14.7%
15% -30.0% 13% -22.9%
20% -36.9% 5% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses29 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage44d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 100¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+22%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +13%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $5 +$3 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Draw at halftime? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 02 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $5 $0 +9%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? May 30 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 20 $46 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 20 $16 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 20 $4 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 20 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 20 $22 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 20 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 20 $15 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 20 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 20 $35 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 20 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 20 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 20 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 20 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 18 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 18 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 18 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 17 $25 $0 +2%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $31 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 13 $15 +$2 +14%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 11 $15 +$6 +38%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? May 09 $18 +$3 +19%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $21 +$1 +6%
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: Draw at halftime? May 09 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $15 +$6 +40%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Draw at halftime? May 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $6 $0 +5%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $21 +$3 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 49m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $11 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $11 1h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 88¢ $7 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 14d
Croatia vs. Belgium: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $2 14d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $2 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 17d
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 17d
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 17d
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 86¢ $8 17d
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 83¢ $7 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.34 · official $24.34 (match) · 135 history records