Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:52:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
91 0x911b…344f other 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15,188 (+10%) realized +$15,306 · open −$118
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%45W / 48L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$1,634per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$698est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$2,567now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,728
7 days+$8,022
14 days+$18,135
30 days+$11,463
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$7,646
sports 21% +$2,886
crypto 5% +$3,246
world 0% −$358
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -2.6% -11.9% 45% 45% +2.2%
≤30d 91 +8.5% -1.9% 48% 48% -2.2%
≤90d 93 +9.1% -1.3% 48% 48% -1.2%
all 93 +9.1% -1.3% 48% 48% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.3% 48% -1.2%
10% ← realistic here -10.8% 45% -10.6%
15% -19.4% 42% -19.3%
20% -27.3% 39% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$1,651) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,393 vs −$1,024 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$2,567
Realized+$15,306
Unrealized−$118
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses45 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$698
Open positions2
Markets (closed)93 / 95
History coverage30d
Avg bet$1,634
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 55¢ 81¢ $1,438 $2,131 +$693 (+48%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 39¢ 14¢ $1,246 $436 −$810 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $1,242 +$1,126 +91%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $15,035 +$4,555 +30%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1,345 −$1,322 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2,554 +$3,175 +124%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 25 $976 −$455 -47%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3,126 −$2,076 -66%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,399 −$1,338 -96%
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 25 $946 −$936 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2,477 −$1,653 -67%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $1,000 +$1,008 +101%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 24 $146 −$127 -88%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2,220 +$2,686 +121%
Barcelona vs. Valencia Jun 24 $875 +$688 +79%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $644 −$1 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $759 −$156 -21%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 24 $723 −$708 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $1,154 −$1,132 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,515 +$576 +38%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $1,565 +$1,474 +94%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 23 $499 +$464 +93%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $372 −$366 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,415 +$474 +34%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 23 $508 −$500 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $898 −$863 -96%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $1,184 +$1,710 +144%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $1,470 −$1,470 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $487 +$707 +145%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3,975 +$2,201 +55%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 22 $407 −$400 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $899 −$57 -6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $367 −$358 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $969 −$603 -62%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $812 +$673 +83%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $365 +$466 +128%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,516 +$777 +51%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $720 −$651 -90%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,323 +$1,685 +127%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $513 −$86 -17%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,038 +$516 +17%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $438 +$903 +206%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $593 −$580 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,031 −$2,000 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,697 +$1,103 +41%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3,099 +$488 +16%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $654 −$641 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,415 +$1,130 +80%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $496 −$485 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,172 +$339 +29%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $489 +$682 +139%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,454 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 81¢ $15 5h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 81¢ $216 5h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 81¢ $2 5h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 81¢ $1,753 5h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 81¢ $50 5h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 81¢ $2 5h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 81¢ $5 5h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 81¢ $8 5h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 81¢ $317 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 89¢ $16,494 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 89¢ $71 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 89¢ $2,594 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 89¢ $430 6h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 46¢ $6 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 71¢ $3,490 7h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 47¢ $263 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 71¢ $7,019 7h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 46¢ $494 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $504 7h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 36¢ $2 11h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 36¢ $476 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $2,022 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $4 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $1,996 11h
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 15h
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 43¢ $517 15h
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 17h
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 43¢ $692 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,567.25 · official $2,567.51 (match) · 505 history records