Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:53:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
91 0x911a…f933 crypto 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 225d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,978per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$16
other 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +2.3% -7.5% 100% 0% -7.1%
≤90d 4 +1.4% -8.2% 100% 0% -7.6%
all 8 +1.7% -8.0% 88% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 0% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -24.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$17 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage225d
Avg bet$1,978
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 28 $26 $0 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? May 28 $55 +$2 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in March? Apr 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Apr 09 $27 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February? Mar 05 $55 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 24 $103 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Jan 26 $17,454 −$17 -0%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Jan 20 $18 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $62 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1 88d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $26 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $27 104d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $55 106d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $55 118d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? SELL No 99¢ $104 120d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? BUY No 98¢ $103 129d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $17,436 148d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $17,454 148d
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 224d
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 224d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.16 · official $62.16 (match) · 18 history records