Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:17:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9118…c83e crypto 206 markets active 20h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%102W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$276
14 days−$260
30 days−$260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$122
other 10% +$111
politics 5% +$2
world 5% +$2
sports 0% −$1
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 -34.8% -41.0% 37% 31% -61.6%
≤30d 172 -24.5% -31.7% 43% 35% -49.1%
≤90d 174 -23.9% -31.2% 44% 36% -48.5%
all 205 -11.9% -20.2% 50% 41% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 41% -10.4%
10% -27.9% 35% -19.0%
15% -34.8% 23% -26.8%
20% -41.2% 20% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses102 / 103
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)205 / 206
History coverage150d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 205 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -45%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $4 −$1 -23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $3 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 469 history records