Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:47:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9112…6d1d crypto 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-4%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate59%23W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -13.0% -21.3% 61% 47% -11.5%
≤30d 39 -15.2% -23.3% 59% 46% -12.0%
≤90d 39 -15.2% -23.3% 59% 46% -12.0%
all 39 -15.2% -23.3% 59% 46% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 46% -12.0%
10% -30.6% 23% -20.4%
15% -37.3% 10% -28.1%
20% -43.5% 3% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses23 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage10d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $12 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $11 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 83 history records