Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
91 0x9110…99be crypto 28 markets active 18h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-10%) realized −$8 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%10W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$7
sports 41% −$1
other 16% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -19.0% -26.7% 40% 35% -21.9%
≤30d 27 -10.8% -19.3% 37% 33% -22.1%
≤90d 27 -10.8% -19.3% 37% 33% -22.1%
all 27 -10.8% -19.3% 37% 33% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 33% -22.1%
10% -27.0% 26% -29.6%
15% -34.1% 19% -36.4%
20% -40.5% 11% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses10 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage7d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 35¢ 42¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $1 +$1 +109%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -54%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1 +$4 +344%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $2 −$1 -46%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $3 +$1 +25%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2 $0 -4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$4 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $5 −$1 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 15¢ $1 18h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 47¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 18h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 35¢ $5 18h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 18h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 32¢ $1 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 22¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 8¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 22¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 26¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 11¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 25¢ $2 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 25¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 6d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 92¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.96 · official $5.96 (match) · 68 history records