Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:32:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
91 0x910e…8fc3 sports 12 markets active 7d ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$78,494 (-67%) realized −$78,494 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%2W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9,807per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2,199est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$56,592
30 days−$62,104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$59,267
other 21% −$13,988
crypto 5% −$5,512
world 4% −$1,466
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-55.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -40.2% -45.9% 20% 20% -74.4%
≤90d 5 -40.2% -45.9% 20% 20% -74.4%
all 12 -50.5% -55.2% 17% 17% -70.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -55.2% 17% -70.4%
10% ← realistic here -59.5% 17% -73.2%
15% -63.4% 17% -75.8%
20% -67.0% 17% -78.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -73% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -73% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,210 vs −$8,465 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$78,494
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses2 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2,199
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage162d
Avg bet$9,807
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $9,883 −$9,740 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20,341 −$20,005 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $977 +$1,521 +156%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $49,886 −$28,368 -57%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $6,230 −$5,512 -88%
Will George Santos attend the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 25 $7,150 −$6,862 -96%
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $10,862 −$10,862 -100%
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho Feb 09 $5,167 +$2,899 +56%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 13 $5,000 −$1,466 -29%
Commanders vs. Eagles Jan 05 $1,000 −$998 -100%
Seahawks vs. 49ers Jan 04 $500 −$156 -31%
Maduro mugshot released by Monday? Jan 04 $684 −$684 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $9,883 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 42¢ $10,180 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 50¢ $5,869 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 55¢ $225 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $4,067 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $2,498 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $977 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 11¢ $981 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 10¢ $9,987 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 10¢ $3,726 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 11¢ $1,147 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 11¢ $5,677 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 23¢ $24,309 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 23¢ $5,115 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 23¢ $20,462 11d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $284 18d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $461 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $58 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5,888 19d
Will George Santos attend the 2026 State of the Union address? SELL Yes $71 117d
Will George Santos attend the 2026 State of the Union address? SELL Yes $157 117d
Will George Santos attend the 2026 State of the Union address? SELL Yes $60 117d
Will George Santos attend the 2026 State of the Union address? BUY Yes 71¢ $3,545 117d
Will George Santos attend the 2026 State of the Union address? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 117d
Will George Santos attend the 2026 State of the Union address? BUY Yes 72¢ $2,704 117d
Will George Santos attend the 2026 State of the Union address? BUY Yes 72¢ $22 117d
Will George Santos attend the 2026 State of the Union address? BUY Yes 72¢ $603 117d
Will George Santos attend the 2026 State of the Union address? BUY Yes 72¢ $257 117d
Will George Santos attend the 2026 State of the Union address? BUY Yes 72¢ $13 117d
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? BUY No 84¢ $8,066 133d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records